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Articles
- Management
of Business Case EvidenceThe key element of a
successful business case to justify major capital investment is the
ability to demonstrate the benefits that can be derived from an
economically viable solution.
- Safety Culture Icon's report
into changes in ATM Safety Culture as a result of new technology has
now been published.
- Noise
With Directive 2002/30/EC now translated into law by
Member States, airports are faced with a fresh set of challenges in
balancing management of growing air traffic and better relations
with their neighbours.
If you are interested in any of the issues and solutions discussed in
this newsletter please
contact us.
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UPDATE ON ICON WORK
SEAP
Business Case
Icon has now completed the business case for SEAP (Large Scale
European ADS pre-implementation Programme). The main objective of SEAP
is to extend the European ADS network to enable large scale Trans
European trials involving fleet equipped aircraft. The main benefit
identified for ANSPs was reduction in controller workload and the main
benefit for airlines was an increase in flight efficiency.
Using a conservative set of assumptions, a strong case was
established for the SEAP ANSPs to invest in ADS-B technology and
implement the SEAP applications in the SEAP area. Provided ANSP
benefits are passed onto airlines as a reduction in service charges,
an attractive internal rate of return is also available for airlines.
The study found that there is strong case for an incentive scheme that
returns benefits selectively to those airlines that invest in the
equipment and encourages early investment.
The following ADS applications will be implemented in the SEAP area.
- ATC Surveillance in Non-radar Areas (ADS-B-NRA);
- Enhanced Sequencing and Merging Operations (ASPA-S&M) ;
- ASAS Applications in the Canary Islands Oceanic Airspace;
- Enhanced Traffic Situational Awareness on the Airport Surface
(ATSA-SURF);
- ATC Surveillance in Terminal Areas (ADS-B-TMA)
The SEAP Business Case was evaluated using the EMOSIA methodology
and ATOBIA mode,l and benefits were quantified using expert judgement.
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EMOSIA
The European Model for Strategic ATM Investment
Analysis (EMOSIA) is a standard method for carrying out cost benefit
analyses of ATM investments, supported by a tool based on the
'Decision Advisor' program. It is now the method of choice for
Eurocontrol for the evaluations of investment options. ICON is a major
practitioner in the use of EMOSIA. We have used it in the assessment
of the SEAP business case. We will be also using it to carry out the
Cost Benefit Analyses of DMEAN and C-ATM and A-SMGCS.
The EMOSIA method consists of three main elements:
- Dialogue with stakeholders and experts in order to define the
appropriate questions and assumptions for the economic evaluation;
- Five stakeholder models a to evaluate the economic viability of
an ATM improvement for ANSPs, Airports Operators, Airline Operators,
the Military and General Aviation;
- Standard inputs and a rolling baseline of traffic levels,
delays, efficiency and other factors, taking into account the ATM
improvements expected to take place in the absence of this
investment.
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DMEAN
Icon has been awarded the contract to carry out a cost
benefit analyses of DMEAN.
The DMEAN objective is to release latent ATM capacity by closer
integration of a number of ATM areas such as Airspace Management and
ATFCM as needed to meet capacity and flight efficiency requirements
2006-2009. Given these time scales, DMEAN will not depend on new
technologies but will be based on an improved utilisation of the
current ATM system. This will be achieved through enhanced
collaborative processes, information exchange and other improvements
that are required to balance demand and capacity in a more dynamic
way.
The DMEAN CBA is to be carried out in two stages. The first it to
look at short-term operational improvements for 2006/7, and the secod
is to carry out a full assessment of the cost and benefits of the
DMEAN CONOPs. More information on the DMEAN concept can be found on
the
DMEAN
home page.
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Performance
of Future Concepts
Icon has long been associated with the performance of air traffic
management and we are currently looking at how the performance of
future concepts should be identified. Given the intensive effort about
to be put into SESAME, this work is of the essence. Our opening
proposition is that the traditional approach to identifying new
concepts by identifying potential changes to technologies and
procedures is no longer appropriate. Future systems should be designed
by identifying a target set of industry performance measures and then
carrying out option appraisals to determine how best to achieve them.
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Going
for S-CAT
UK Government is retendering the Frameworks through
which it procures much of its management and IT consulting. ICON has
joined with other small companies to bid. So far so good. We will
continue to concentrate on our core expertise of strategic, policy and
financial analyses, the use of future technologies and commercial,
procurement and programme management in complex environments. If we
achieve the success we are expecting there will be more opportunities
for suitably qualified consultants. Please feel free to contact us if
your expertise matches our services and you have an interest in
working in UK Government organisations. We would be particularly
interested in hearing from consultants who have current experience of
this work.
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OGC
Framework
We are delighted to announce that the UK Office of
Government Commerce has appointed Icon as a supplier for framework
reviews and consulting. Details of the OGC services may be found on
http://www.ogc.gov.uk/index.asp?id=377
and http://www.ogc.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1000332
There is currently an open call for Gateway Review Team Leaders for
all Sectors and for Gateway Team Members for Health. If you feel that
you have the necessary expertise to carry out reviews please contact
us.
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ARTICLES OF INTEREST
Management
of Business Case Evidence
The key element of a successful business case to
justify major capital investment is the ability to demonstrate the
benefits that can be derived from an economically viable solution.
This can be difficult to achieve, especially when it involves the
research, development and implementation of complex new concepts and
products.
Validation is the process by which evidence is obtained that
the "right" solution is being developed. It is part of
classic system engineering lifecycles where validation is seen as one
of the final activities to test whether a system meets the original
user needs. In reality this is too simplistic a model because most
complex systems and products are developed in an iterative and
evolutionary way; therefore, validation should be performed throughout
the lifecycle to support the go/no go decisions on further
development. It is important to distinguish validation from
verification, which is the process that tests whether a product has
been built as specified in the design phase.
The term validation has slightly different meanings in certain
industries, such as nuclear and healthcare, where it refers to formal
processes, dictated by regulation, which lead to the certification of
products to national and international standards, for example, the
testing and trials of pharmaceutical products.
In general, evidence gathering and interpretation for business
justification increases in complexity with the complexity of the
product and concept. Evidence can be obtained from any point in the
product development lifecycle, using a variety of techniques (e.g.
paper based research, prototyping, simulations, in-vitro and in-vivo
trials, pre-operational testing), each focusing on different aspects
using different indicators and metrics to measure results. A huge
amount of data can be generated from these activities, some of which
is fully or partially overlapping in scope, can be contradictory and
which may or may not be relevant for the business case. The data
becomes even more voluminous and problematic when it has been
generated in a multi-national, multi-partner environment.
Icon has been involved in developing methodical approaches to
managing validation information to support decision making in exactly
this kind of environment. For example, we have played a central role
in the successful development and operation of the Validation Data
Repository (VDR) for EUROCONTROL which has significantly improved the
information management of validation activities in Air Traffic
Management System development (see attached
case study).
If
you are interested to find out more about how Icon could advise you on
managing validation processes, please at contact us at enquiries@icon-consulting.com.
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Noise
With Directive 2002/30/EC now translated into law by Member States,
airports are faced with a fresh set of challenges in balancing the
management of increasing air traffic and better relations with their
neighbours. National responsibilities under the Chicago Convention
dictate that states cannot promote tougher noise standards for
aircraft unilaterally. Long-established airports close to major cities
may have already conducted major campaigns for insulation and even
property buy out. Local or national land-use planning policies have
been used to prevent inappropriate local developments, which might
otherwise conflict with local housing, schools and hospitals. But the
problem of managing a response to traffic growth remains, especially
when most major airports in the EU are served with aircraft which
already comply with the new ICAO Chapter 4 standards. Evidence is
accumulating that noise certification levels are not always the most
reliable guide to operational performance. The challenge is greatest
at night when ambient noise levels may be much lower.
How aircraft are flown during approach and departure, and where,
will be critical to controlling noise impact and curbing annoyance.
Some practices such as noise preferential routes or appropriately
glide slopes are widely used today. In future technology may allow
specially tailored noise abatement procedures at each airport, purpose
designed with the distribution and densities of local population in
mind. But that is for tomorrow; today the paramount requirement for
safety, through the frameworks provided by PANS-OPS and JAR-OPS, means
the emphasis has to be on best practice. Working with ATC providers
and airlines offers the opportunity to ensure that appropriate noise
abatement procedures are used and complied with, without compromising
safety. Airports should be actively considering adopting an audit of
current practice to check that optimum benefits in terms of noise
reductions are both available theoretically and delivered.
Readers may have noticed the publication of the following letter in
Flight International (18th-24th October 2005), by an Icon
associate, Martin Wright.
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Chapter 4 is no panacea for today's airports in the EU (Airbus
sounds out A300B4 for Chapter 4: Flight International 9-15
August p10). The ink is barely dry on Chapter 4 but the search to
re-certificate types originally noise certificated to Chapter 3
over 30 years ago spells more trouble.
Most of today's production aircraft already meet Chapter 4. The
expectation is that new aircraft will also operate for 30 years
and more. Rapid growth of air traffic poses the threat of larger
noise contours at airports where fleets are already wholly or
largely Chapter 4 compliant. The noise certification regime also
does not necessarily rank aircraft in terms of how much noise they
make in normal operation.
Yes, aircraft have got quieter and considerable effort has been
committed to squeeze out a few decibels here and there. But the
plain truth is that technology has not delivered a step change to
match that from the higher bypass ratio engines originally
developed to power big airframes such as the Boeing 747. That
change allowed ICAO to agree Chapter 3 and shrank contours,
especially with concerted action to phase out non-compliant types.
Permitting elderly, marginally compliant aircraft to operate,
particularly in noise sensitive night-time settings, simply
compounds airports' difficulties with their neighbours |
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Safety Culture
Icon's
report
(prepared in association with HRA) into changes in ATM Safety Culture
as a result of new technology has now been published.
This report describes a small-scale project about the impact that
future ATM technologies may have on safety culture in ATM. The overall
objectives of this project were to:
- gather evidence for the impact of recently introduced systems on
safety culture, and
- examine the potential impact future ATM functions may have on
safety culture that could potentially affect safety.
Changes in safety culture were discussed with regard to recently
introduced technologies (such as OLDI, STCA, Human-Machine Interface)
and future technologies (such as MTCD (medium term conflict
detection), CORA (conflict resolution assistant), datalink and ASAS
(airborne separation assurance system). The main findings suggest that
teamwork and communication appear to be particularly vulnerable to
change, although controllers also indicated that there is high chance
that their understanding of the risks and their job satisfaction may
change with new technology. Controllers trust in equipment, personal
responsibility for safety and job pressure were also predicted to
change with the implementation of new technology.
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